#wineleaks: August 2022

Here we are with our issue #6 of our Fine Wine Leaks. Generally, during these difficult days the market is going up and down: so what is happening with the fine wines of Bordeaux? We are glad to offer you some good tips about your liquid assets and how to preserve them. First of all, don’t forget that our Vintage Score is obtained through an AI-driven model that learns year by year how weather and vines status influence the vintage. The main critics scores are also included, so that the model learns over time how to interpret and include their scoring in its predictions. We remind you that our scores for Bordeaux 2021 and for Bordeaux vintages back to 2013 are available for everyone on our platform: access a 7-day trial for free. No credit card is required!

What happened on Bordeaux market this month

Thanks to our algorithmic calculations we are able to tell you in advance which wines seem promising for the next month and which should get particular attention in the Bordeaux market. 
Let’s start from the first of the three best performers, Lafite Rothschild 2018. Released in 2019 at £6000, it registered today a value variation of + £2200: the label has grown by 36.7% and we are expecting an increase of at least +15% for the current month. Our Vintage Score was 95.8 compared with the critics average, which settles at 97.8.

The second is Margaux 2019: our Vintage Score rated the expected grape quality with 97.3 while the critics average was 98.4. The actual variation is + £2011 which means an increase in value of 47%. The trend should increase by at least another +15% for the current month.

Keep an eye on this third best performer because its increase in value seems not going to stop: Lafleur 2019. Both the critics average and our Vintage Score rated it with some impressive 99 and 98.3, respectively. Now the label is offering a really good return on investment thanks to an outstanding value of £16,200, which went up from a release price of £5,800. The expected variation for the future is still positive and the question now becomes: buy it or sell it?

Unfortunately, there are some wines that are facing some value contractions during these uncertain days.  Cos d’Estournel 2020 and Gruaud Larose 2020 are experiencing a small contraction of -2%. We scored Cos d’Estournel 96.1, which is in line with the critics average settling at 96.3.  In our opinion, it is Gruaud Larose 2020 that should get particular attention: we scored it 91, 3 points less than the critics average which displays a more optimistic 94. Since vintage 2018, the label tended to raise the release price. However, the market seems not inclined to accommodate these expectations, especially for vintage 2018. Will vintage 2020 follow the same path? Our model is predicting further reduction in price.

How did our WineLeaks for July perform?

Last but not least, an analysis of our past predictions. In the table below you can see a summary of the predictions we made for July. Our Monthly Price Trend correctly estimated the growth and loss in value for 2 out of 6 wines: many factors impact the market price and certainly it’s not possible to take into account all of them. However, despite its limits, our model still offers a competitive advantage for merchants and collectors, as it manages to take into account, leverage and explain a number of these factors.

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#wineleaks: August 2022