Saturnalia scores for Bordeaux Primeurs recap: part 1

Saturnalia offers in November a quality overall prediction for Bordeaux Primeurs

One of Saturnalia services includes the computing of early scores for fine wine appellations. Saturnalia, thanks to a well-balanced combination of classical statistical modelling and AI applied to satellite-based data, can provide soon after the harvest a prediction of the future vintages overall quality. In addition, oftentimes the available data provided by the wine estates allow us to build algorithmic models capable of giving a prediction of the price trends up to 3 years after the release on the market.

During the last few months, Saturnalia efforts focused on the Bordeaux En Primeur campaign, which was delayed due to the Coronavirus pandemic and which has officially begun in the last few weeks, as critics have started to taste and award the wine.

Here’s the first in a series of posts which collect our scores and price variations analysis for a set of 50+ Bordeaux top wines. Click here to discover for which wines Saturnalia has computed the score.

[UPDATE: here is the second part containing 20+ additional wines)

Cos d'Estournel 2019; Saturnalia score 97.0/100

Here are the critics' scores:
James Suckling: 98-99
Wine Advocate – Lisa Perrotti-Brown : 97-99+
Jeb Dunnuck: 97-99

Release price: €110 per bottle

Lafleur 2019; Saturnalia score: 98.6/100

Here are the critics' scores:
Jean-Marc Quarin: 98/100

Release price: £5,800 per 12×75

Below our price variation analysis:
Lafleur opening price is the same as 2018, going against the trend of the rest of the En Primeur release prices so far. Even so, it represents a very interesting opportunity for the market, as the chart below suggests. In our analysis of the price variation at 3 years after release, 2014, 2015 and 2016 vintages have gained approximately 60%, 160% and 90% from the release price (grey bars), largely in accordance with the Saturnalia price prediction model (red bars).

Duhart-Milon 2019, Saturnalia score: 92/100.

Here are the critics' scores:
James Suckling: 95-96
Jeff Leve: 93-95
Lisa Perrotti-Brown: 92-94

Release price: £624 per 12×75

L'Evangile 2019; Saturnalia score: 92.5/100.

Here are the critics' scores:
Jane Anson: 98-100
James Suckling: 97-98
Lisa Perrotti-Brown: 96-98
Jeb Dunnuck: 96-98

Release price: £1752 per 12×75

Lafite Rothschild 2019; Saturnalia score: 96.1/100

Here are the critics' scores:
James Suckling: 99-100
Lisa Perrotti-Brown: 97-99
Jeff Leve: 98-100
Jeb Dunnuck: 98-100

Release price: £5112 per 12×75.

Gazin 2019; Saturnalia score: 93.2/100

Here are the critics' scores:
James Suckling: 95-96

Release price: £630 per 12×75

Below our price analysis:

Cheval Blanc 2019; Saturnalia score: 95.4/100

Here are the critics' scores:
Jean-Marc Quarin: 98

Release price: £4,500 per 12×75

Below our price variation analysis:

Haut-Bages Liberal 2019; Saturnalia score: 92.3/100

Here are the critics' scores:
yet to be scored

Release price: €22.8 per bottle

Below our price variation analysis:

Armailhac 2019; Saturnalia score: 92.3/100

Here are the critics' scores:
James Suckling: 92-93/100
Jean-Marc Quarin 93/100
Jeff Leve 92-94/100

Release price: £372 per 12×75.

Below our price variation analysis:

Clerc Milon 2019; Saturnalia score: 92.2/100

Here are the critics' scores:
Lisa Perrotti-Brown 92-94/100
James Suckling 94-95/100
Jean-Marc Quarin 94/100 points;

Release price: £624 per 12×75

Below our price variation analysis:

Mouton Rothschild 2019; score de Saturnalia: 96.7/100

Here are the critics' scores:
Jeff Leve, 97-99/100
Jean-Marc Quarin 97/100
James Suckling: 99-100/100
Lisa Perrotti-Brown 98-100/100
Jeb Dunnuck: 97-99/100

Release price: £3,588 per 12×75

Below our price variation analysis:

Grand Puy Ducasse 2019; Saturnalia score: 91.8/100

Here are the critics' scores:
James Suckling’s score of 92-93
Jane Anson’s of 92
Jean-Marc Quarin 90 points

Release price: £276 per 12×75

Below our price variation analysis:

Haut Batailley 2019; Saturnalia score: 93.0

Here are the critics' scores:
James Suckling 95-96/100

Release price: £432 per 12×75.

Lynch Bages 2019; Saturnalia score: 94.9/100

Here are the critics' scores:
James Suckling 96-97/100.

Release price: £790 per 12×75.

Below our price variation analysis:

Pavie 2019; Saturnalia score: 96.5/100

Here are the critics' scores:
Lisa Perrotti-Brown: 97-100
James Suckling: 98-99
Jeb Dunnuck: 97-99

Release price: £2,990 per 12×75

Below our price variation analysis:

Haut-Brion 2019; Saturnalia score: 96.5/100

Here are the critics' scores:
James Suckling: 99-100
Lisa Perrotti-Brown: 97-99

Release price: £3,540 per 12×75

Below our price variation analysis:

La Mission Haut-Brion 2019; Saturnalia score: 93.2/100

Here are the critics' scores:
Jean-Marc Quarin: 94-95
James Suckling: 99-100
Lisa Perrotti-Brown: 98-100

Release price: £2,256 per 12×75

Below our price variation analysis:

Calon Segur 2019; Saturnalia score: 94.3/100

Here are the critics' scores:
James Suckling: 95-96
Jean-Marc Quarin: 96-97
Jeff Leve: 96-98 points

Release price: £777 per 12×75

Below our price variation analysis:

Tertre 2019; Saturnalia score: 90.5/100

Here are the critics' scores:
Jeff Leve: 91-93
James Suckling: 95-96

Release price: £318 per 12×75

Below our price variation analysis